How Pilots Predict Turbulence?

Posted on November 29, 2019 David Sherman

Severe turbulence isn’t just a nuisance when you’re flying, it can also be a genuine health hazard. The Federal Aviation Administration reported 44 injuries related to turbulence in 2016, most of them suffered by flight attendants that were up and moving around the aircraft when the turbulence hit. Given that over 932 million passengers flew on domestic flights that same year, however, this number is mercifully low. One major reason why there are so few turbulence-related injuries is that pilots have gotten better at predicting when turbulence is coming, and warning passengers.

There are actually three types of turbulence an aircraft can encounter. The first is convective turbulence, which occurs when a thunderstorm generates powerful up and down drafts of air. The second is mountain wave turbulence, which is caused when air flows over the tops of mountains and creates waves, the same way that waves in the ocean break due to an underwater reef. Lastly there is clear air turbulence, which is created when a mass of warm air collides with a cold-air mass. Measures are always taken to avoid a rough ride from the outset of the flight, where dispatchers and meteorologists work together to plot a route for the flight that is smooth, safe, and direct based on what they know about the atmosphere along the flightpath.

Once in the air, the flight crew has a weather radar display that provides information on the conditions ahead. Weather radar displays conditions in three colors to indicate precipitation, which is a strong indicator of convective turbulence. Green light indicates moderate turbulence, yellow shows an area that is rougher, and red signifies areas that should be avoided.

Pilots will typically alter their route to avoid high turbulence, but sometimes the area is too large to fly around, and would require too much aircraft fuel to deviate. In these cases, pilots will simply pick the weakest and smallest storm to fly through. Mountain wave turbulence, is also predictable, with charts and maps that diagram where and how it will flow. Visual cues from lens-shaped lenticular clouds also hint where turbulence is present.

Clear air turbulence is more difficult to predict, so pilots will listen on the radio for a plane that is ahead of them and is making a PIREPS, or pilot report, to air traffic control. A pilot can get a warning roughly five to ten minutes in advance if they listen to flights ahead of them, and 20 minutes if the warning comes from an air traffic controller. This gives the pilots enough time to request and execute a maneuver to avoid it. Even then, sometimes pilots have to turn on the buckle seatbelts sign and have the passengers prepare for a bumpy ride. In these times, it is critical to follow the instructions to avoid an injury. You wouldn’t drive a car without wearing one, right?

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